Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 38.013011 43.236418 49.465163 57.609668 68.254002 82.132175 102.438024
2025-04-20 31.054604 37.371698 45.719262 58.136981 77.375555 108.857752 173.196683
2025-04-27 26.887420 33.677318 43.356136 59.328488 88.180817 148.325056 345.736878
2025-05-04 24.007260 30.984480 41.530337 60.495053 99.939389 207.128638 999.314762
2025-05-11 21.741657 28.691493 39.674617 60.839130 110.689612 290.478923 17296.097259
2025-05-18 19.758324 26.477103 37.432600 59.641144 117.368295 390.738718 NaN
2025-05-25 18.389330 25.011220 36.146074 59.915066 128.741855 602.591957 NaN
2025-06-01 17.156543 23.597382 34.685593 59.341419 137.573467 957.204320 NaN
2025-06-08 16.064767 22.288723 33.203129 58.283704 144.331119 1625.461349 NaN
2025-06-15 15.150431 21.183077 31.938323 57.408809 151.649069 3550.782119 NaN
2025-06-22 14.395306 20.276500 30.930248 56.920209 160.938493 21664.513648 NaN
2025-06-29 13.606732 19.246428 29.556351 55.145569 162.570941 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 13.399040 19.220398 30.195134 59.114788 204.360202 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 12.809878 18.467544 29.252859 58.312675 215.292601 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 12.381225 17.971974 28.793651 58.873691 240.030841 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.010448 17.553340 28.448760 59.721793 272.424865 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.627250 17.084145 27.941007 59.916107 301.657003 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.185927 16.479099 27.073682 58.683656 311.543873 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.868815 16.088284 26.649703 58.920012 347.063646 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.528483 15.633719 26.039144 58.348124 370.688546 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.186519 15.158315 25.341871 57.313171 384.619185 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.877653 14.731245 24.723676 56.459350 402.317705 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.609098 14.368739 24.228145 55.982737 430.769354 NaN NaN